decisions, decisions

"Fig.2 - A taxonomy of uncertainties and decisions"

This diagram is from this strange article, The ethics of uncertainty: in the light of possible dangers, research becomes a moral duty, published by EMBO, the European Molecular Biology Organization, found on the web through Nature Magazine.

“Any scientist knows that knowledge is never complete and that research can do no more than produce estimates of what we think is happening. Science, at least in part, is not about facts but about odds. Yet accepting and realizing this principal uncertainty is a conceptual challenge, and it is within this framework that we must make decisions of a moral nature…Uncertainty itself has no ethical quality—it is an inherent attribute of a situation. However, in a potentially dangerous situation, uncertainty can trigger ethically adjusted behavior that aims to avoid dangers and diminishes risks." (from article above)

Also check out Figure 1, The Igloo of Uncertainty. The igloo schematically “distinguishes between open and closed forms of both ignorance and knowledge.”

I’m not sure why I’m so fascinated (and puzzled) by this article. I think I’m drawn to the language and its terms, even if they are used to discuss an unfamiliar topic in a way that is very different from what I’m used to.

The allure resides in the promise of clarifying certain ideas and relationships I’ve found difficult to define for myself: ethics, morality, danger, risk, certainty, uncertainty, research, facts, knowledge, and ignorance. The more I read it, the less I want to understand it word for word; and at the same time, I feel there must be another layer of comprehension or parallel reading to be distilled from it. But I’m not getting it.

The End of Philosophy, (no, not the Heidegger but this op-ed piece in, what else?, the New York Times), on moral emotions, or is it emotional morality?, is more of my grade level. It’s not especially good or compelling but I liked the concluding lines: "Finally, it should also challenge the very scientists who study morality. They’re good at explaining how people make judgments about harm and fairness, but they still struggle to explain the feelings of awe, transcendence, patriotism, joy and self-sacrifice, which are not ancillary to most people’s moral experiences, but central." (moral allusions and associations in scent?)

I was given a book I like very much for my birthday last fall from a friend I was feeling very uncertain about at the time. It is called The Principles of Uncertainty, by Maira Kalman. (small review here.) He knew I felt uncertain about a lot of things, especially my thesis. We both wondered without saying, how can such a hesitant and doubtful person ever find a way into this profession of ideals, decisions, solutions, permanence?